FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)-- Nachfolgend erhalten Sie eine Übersicht über die Zinsprognosen ausgewählter Institute für die kommende Ratssitzung der EZB sowie die Zinsentwicklung in den folgenden drei Quartalen. In Klammern befindet sich die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit, sofern von der Bank angegeben. Nicht eindeutige Angaben werden nicht in der Liste der Nennungen aufgeführt.
=== aktueller Satz Ein-Wochen-Refi: 4,25% KONSENS (Modalwert) - für die Sitzung am 14. September: 4,25% (24 Nennungen) 4,50% (18 Nennungen) - Ende viertes Quartal 2023 4,50% (14 Nennungen) 4,24% (11 Nennungen) - Ende erstes Quartal 2024 4,25% (12 Nennungen) 4,50% (11 Nennungen) - Ende zweites Quartal 2024 4,25% (10 Nennungen) 4,50% ( 5 Nennungen) 4,00% ( 3 Nennungen) 3,75% ( 2 Nennungen) Die Schätzwerte im Einzelnen: Sitzung am Institut 14. Sep Ende Q4 2023 Ende Q1 2024 Ende Q2 2024 ABN Amro 4,25% AIB 4,50% Barclays 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% Berenberg 4,25% 4,50% BofA Global Research 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% 4,25% Caixabank 4,50% (50%) 4,50% (60%) 4,50% (50%) 4,50% (45%) 4,25% (40%) 4,25% (30%) 4,25% (30%) 4,25% (35%) 4,00% (10%) 4,00% (10%) 4,00% (20%) 4,00% (20%) Citi 4,50% Commerzbank 4,25% (55%) 4,25% (55%) 4,25% (55%) 4,25% (55%) 4,50% (45%) 4,50% (45%) 4,50% (45%) 4,50% (45%) Danske Bank 4,50% Deka-Bank 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% Deutsche Bank 4,25% DNB Markets 4,50% Donner & Reuschel 4,50% (60%) 4,50% (50%) 4,50% (40%) 4,00% (40%) 4,25% (40%) 4,25% (40%) 4,25% (40%) 4,50% (30%) 4,00% (10%) 4,00% (20%) 4,25% (30%) DWS 4,50% (75%) 4,50% (75%) 4,50% (75%) 3,75% (75%) DZ Bank 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% Erste Group 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% 4,00% Generali Insurance AM 4,25% (65%) 4,25% (70%) 4,25% (80%) 4,25% (80%) 4,50% (34%) 4,50% (29%) 4,50% (19%) 4,50% (19%) 4,75% ( 1%) 4,75% ( 1%) 4,75% ( 1%) 4,75% ( 1%) Goldman Sachs 4,50% HCOB 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% Hamburger Sparkasse 4,25% Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% Helaba 4,25% (70%) 4,25% (60%) 4,25% (60%) 4,25% (60%) 4,50% (30%) 4,50% (40%) 4,50% (30%) 4,50% (30%) 4,75% (10%) 4,75% (10%) HSBC 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% ING 4,50% (55%) 4,50% (60%) 4,50% (55%) 4,25% (40%) 4,25% (45%) 4,25% (35%) 4,25% (40%) 3,75% (40%) 4,75% ( 5%) 4,75% ( 5%) 4,50% (20%) Intesa Sanpaolo 4,25% (65%) 4,25% (50%) 4,25% (50%) 4,25% (50%) 4,50% (35%) 4,50% (50%) 4,50% (40%) 4,50% (40%) 4,75% (10%) 4,75% (10%) IWH 4,50% (65%) 4,50% (60%) 4,50% (60%) 4,25% (60%) 4,25% (35%) 4,25% (30%) 4,25% (30%) 4,00% (20%) 4,75% (10%) 4,00% (10%) 3,75% (20%) J.P. Morgan 4,25% KBC 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% LBBW 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% Morgan Stanley 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% 3,75% Natixis 4,25% Nordea 4,25% NordLB 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% Pictet WM 4,50% Postbank 4,25% Rabobank 4,25% RBC Capital Markets 4,25% SEB 4,25% Societe Generale 4,25% Standard Chartered 4,25% 4,25% 4,25% 4,00% Swedbank 4,50% 4,50% Unicredit 4,50% 4,50% 4,50% 4,25% Volksbank Wien 4,25% (50%) 4,50% (55%) 4,50% (55%) 4,50% (50%) 4,50% (50%) 4,25% (30%) 4,25% (30%) 4,25% (40%) 4,75% (15%) 4,75% (15%) 4,75% (10%) Umfragezeitraum: 6. bis 11. September 2023 ==
- AIB = Allied Irish Banks
- BofA Global Research = Bank of America Global Research
- Generali Insurance AM = Generali Insurance Asset Management
- HCOB = Hamburg Commercial Bank
- Pictet WM = Pictet Wealth Management
- RBC Capital Markets = Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets
- Kontakt zum Autor: volkan.ictuerk@dowjones.com
DJG/voi/hab/kla
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 11, 2023 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)