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Original-Research: Expedeon AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Expedeon AG

Unternehmen: Expedeon AG
ISIN: DE000A1RFM03

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 3.20 Euro
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2019
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Strong sales and earnings growth after 9 month 2018; forecasts and target
price confirmed
 
The clear upward trend in revenues already shown by Expedeon AG in previous
quarters is also visible in the 2018 9-month figures. Revenues of EUR 9.28
million (previous year: EUR. 5.34 million) were significantly above the
previous year, as expected. This stems from both organic growth (expansion
of the product range, expansion of the client base, increased demand for
Expedeon products, etc.) as well as the high level of acquisition activity
in previous financial years. The acquisitions in 2016 of Expedeon Ltd. and
C.B.S. Scientific were noteworthy, as was the acquisition of Innova
Biosciences in 2017. Australian company TGR Biosciences was also acquired
in the first half of 2018, but was only consolidated into the Group on
01/05/2018 and so had only a proportionate effect on Expedeon Group
revenues. In line with the strong growth in revenue, the brake-even and
therefore a slightly positive result was achieved for the first time in
EBITDA. EBITDA therefore improved significantly to EUR 0.14 million
(previous year: EUR -2.52 million).
 
On the basis of the half-year figures, Expedeon AG has confirmed the most
recently upgraded forecasts. In addition, sales of between EUR 13 million
and EUR 14 million are expected and, for the first time, a break-even in
EBITDA. To achieve the revenue guidance, the Company would have to generate
further revenues of between EUR 3.7 million and EUR 4.7 million in the last
quarter of the year. Based on the quarter just ended (Q3 2018), in which
revenues of EUR 3.66 million were achieved, the Company's forecasts appear
to be realistic. By contrast, our previous forecasts are somewhat too
offensive, so we are anticipating a slight reduction to EUR 13.20 million
(previously: EUR 13.91 million).
 
In addition, we are expecting the previously initiated growth trajectory to
continue in the second half of the year. The ongoing launch of new products
is helping to tap into new customers and markets. One example is the
introduction of the TruePrimeTM apoptotic cell-free DNA amplification kit
at the end of 2017. This liquid biopsy kit can be used to amplify
circulating tumour DNA in fluid. This is therefore expected to become an
important tool for oncological research and diagnostics. Further product
launches and the leveraging of synergy effects should have a positive
impact on revenue development. We therefore confirm our medium term sales
and profit estimates.
 
The Company is well on the way to achieving its target of positive EBITDA
for the full year. Against the backdrop of an expected increase in revenue
and the complete consolidation of TGR earning contributions in the second
half of the year, we see this as a very realistic target. Our expected
EBITDA of EUR 0.52 million (previously: EUR 0.95 million) reflects the slightly
lower sales expectations.
 
Based on the slightly reduced forecasts in our DCF-model we have determined
new price target of EUR 3.20 (previously: EUR 3.30) per share. With a
current price level of EUR 1.01, there is still abundant price potential
and we therefore confirm our BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/17303.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (4,5a,6a,7,10,11);
Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: 
http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Datum (Uhrzeit) Fertigstellung: 26.11.2018 (10:00 Uhr)
Datum (Uhrzeit) erste Weitergabe: 26.11.2018 (12:00 Uhr)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. 
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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