MARKTKOMMENTAR
EZB-Entscheid in Billionenhöhe
Im Anhang schicken wir Ihnen einen aktuellen Kommentar von Andrew Belshaw, Head of Investments Legg Mason, zum EZB-Entscheid in Billionenhöhe. Der Kommentar ist in englischer Sprache.
Zürich/Genf - 22. Januar 2015
Western Asset Management, a subsidiary of Legg Mason, has today reacted to the announcement from the European Central Bank that it is to undertake a quantitative easing programme worth €1.1trn.
Western Asset's Andrew Belshaw, head of investments, London said:
"Despite the negative impact on the Eurozone's near term inflation outlook from the tumbling oil price, in our opinion, data has not been weak enough to move the ECB away from its 'wait and see' stance until now. Acting now could turn out to be problematic because of the proximity of the Greek elections. Nonetheless, with the market pricing in QE, President Draghi's hand has effectively been forced. Given the market fallout when Draghi has previously disappointed (back in October 2014) the pressure was on the ECB to do something, and they have delivered, and markets are reacting positively as a result. While the headline figure is €60bn, this includes the existing ABS and Covered Bond program. The reality is the additional sovereign purchases announced today will be of circa €50bn. The fact President Draghi emphasised they would continue until a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation is seen, is clearly positive for the market. The fact inflation linked securities are also included in the purchase program is also positive, reinforcing the ECB's determination to increase inflation expectations. However, in our opinion, QE is ultimately not the solution to resolve the dual issues of weak growth and fragility which plague the Eurozone. Instead, the ECB should be more radical via its policy operation, perhaps by using its own balance sheet as a backstop to corporate lending.
QE is but one stage on the road to that conclusion, and we expect to see further accommodative policy at some point.
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