Original-Research: q.beyond AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu q.beyond AG

Unternehmen: q.beyond AG
ISIN: DE0005137004

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 14.11.2023
Kursziel: EUR 1,00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q3 profitability even weaker than expected; chg.
Yesterday, q.beyond released weak Q3 figures, showing a slowdown in growth
and profitability even below our recently revised estimates as well as
significantly below consensus. In detail:
Q3 sales increased 5.4% yoy to EUR 45.5m (eNuW: EUR 45.1m; eCons: EUR 46.1m),
which was predominantly driven by the accelerated recovery of the SAP
segment with 12.3% growth to EUR 8.8m (eNuW: EUR 8.7m) following a sales
offensive in recent quarters. However, the otherwise strong Cloud & IoT
segment showed a significant slowdown in growth with a yoy increase of 3.8%
(vs 13.4% in H1; -3% organically, excluding productive data acquisition) to
EUR 36.6m (eNuW: EUR 36.4m). Besides the general market weakness, the company
states price reductions for key customers (e.g. Tchibo) as the main reason
for the performance.
Q3 EBITDA decreased 95% yoy to EUR 0.1m (eNuW: EUR 0.6m; eCons: EUR 1.2m),
implying a 0.2% margin (-380 bps yoy). Here, especially the reduced segment
margin of the Cloud & IoT segment (-130 bps yoy) following inflationary
cost increases as well as a substantially lower other operating income of EUR
0.2m (vs EUR 1.6m in Q3'22) weighed on profitability.
Despite the weak operating result, management confirmed the FY guidance of
EUR 185-191m sales, EUR 5-7m EBITDA and FCF of > EUR -4m. While the sales (eNuW:
EUR 186m; eCons: EUR 187m; 9M: EUR 138m) and FCF (eNuW: EUR 1.4m; eCons: EUR -2.2m;
9M: EUR 1.1m) outlook look in reach, the EBITDA target appears
more than ambitious in light EUR -0.1m after 9M and will only be reached
thanks to a significant other operating income contribution. This however
depends on a decision by the tax authorities concerning the Plusnet sale in
2019, which will, according to management, at least partly turn out in
favor of q.beyond leading to the anticipated one-off. Adjusting for this,
the EBITDA is seen at EUR 0.3m (eNuW).
Going forward, especially the increasing near- and off-shore focus, higher
utilization rates as well as the one q.beyond strategy are seen to have a
positive impact on profitability. Moreover, the net cash position of EUR
37.3m should be partly put to work in the form of value accretive M&A in
2024e, leaving a certain upside to our estimates.
Despite shares looking mispriced after the recent weakness and the stock
trading at only 0.2x EV/Sales 2023e, there is no catalyst for a possible
re-rating in sight, in our view. We confirm BUY with a PT of EUR 1.00 based
on DCF, while at the same time highlighting the absence of catalysts in the
short term.

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Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG  - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

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