Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG

Unternehmen: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Anlass der Studie: Research Report (Anno)
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 19.75 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

- Clear corporate strategy for further growth in place
- Strong increase in sales and earnings expected according to "CENIT 2025"
- Slight price target increase
In the past business year 2022, CENIT AG achieved a significant increase in
sales of 11.0% to EUR 162.15 million (previous year: EUR 146.07 million) and
thus almost compensated for the sales dip of the past two business years.
ISR Information Products AG, which was acquired on 31 May 2022, made the
main contribution to the sales dynamics achieved. Since becoming part of
the CENIT Group, ISR had contributed sales of EUR 13.57 million. Without
inorganic effects, CENIT AG would have reported sales revenues of EUR 148.58
million and thus an organic sales increase of 1.7 %.
Broken down by individual types of revenues, it becomes clear that the
growth in revenues was achieved exclusively through the 39.9% increase in
consulting and service revenues to EUR 55.72 million (previous year: EUR 39.82
million). This includes ISR sales as well as catch-up effects after the
corona pandemic which had particularly affected this sales area. In
contrast, no growth was achieved in sales of third-party software and CENIT
software. It should be emphasised that the company has a high proportion of
recurring revenues of EUR 79.68 million, which account for 49.1% of total
Despite the significant increase in revenues, EBIT improved only marginally
by 1.1% to EUR 6.31 million (previous year: EUR 6.23 million). This is due in
particular to increased costs in connection with the ISR acquisition,
increased travel and vehicle costs, higher project costs for new software
and one-off effects from the reorganisation of the company (approx. EUR 1.3
million). In addition, lower credits were received from tax incentives for
R&D in Germany and France, and finally, the discontinuation of the
short-time allowance, which was still around EUR 1.3 million in the previous
year, also made itself felt. The EBIT margin in 2022 was 3.9% (previous
year: 4.3%).
CENIT AG expects revenues of around EUR 180 million and an EBIT of more than
EUR 9.5 million for 2023. At the same time, the 'CENIT 2025' agenda was
confirmed, in which sales revenues of approximately EUR 300 million are
expected by 2025, accompanied by an increase in the EBIT margin to 8% to
10%. We consider the company's guidance for 2023 to be very realistic, as
the first full-year inclusion of ISR and the acquisition of mip in January
2023 can be expected to result in an increase in sales of approximately EUR
13 million. In addition to the implementation of various organisational and
strategic measures, inorganic growth continues to play a very important
role in the implementation of 'CENIT 2025'. According to the company's
plans, two to three company acquisitions are to be made annually.
Our revenue and earnings estimates up to the 2025 financial year are based
on short- and medium-term corporate guidance. For 2023, we expect revenue
of EUR181.61 million, rising to EUR233.91 million by 2025. We do not include
inorganic growth, which explains the revenue gap to the expected EUR300
million. Therefore, we expect the EBIT margin to reach the lower half of
the expected range by 2025, with an improving EBIT margin trend.
Within the framework of our DCF valuation model, we have determined a new
target price of EUR 19.75 (previously: EUR 18.20). The price target increase is
exclusively a consequence of the first-time inclusion of the 2025 estimates
in the concrete estimation period, which provides a higher basis for the
continuity phase of the DCF valuation model. An even higher target price
increase was countered by the increase in the weighted cost of capital to
8.99% (previously: 8.51%) as a result of the higher risk-free interest
rate. We continue to assign the BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

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Date and time of completion of the study: 06.04.2023 (09:58 am)
Date and time of first transmission: 06.04.2023 (11:30 am)

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